24 February 2025

SOUTH AFRICA’S IMMINENT BIRD FLU CRISIS

South Africa is facing a grave risk from the potential spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
(HPAI or “Bird Flu”). The virus typically migrates with wild birds from Europe to South Africa in
winter, heightening the urgency for proactive measures. The disease, which has already spread
across Europe, the USA, and Argentina, remains unchecked in many countries, signaling that the
time to act is now.

The two primary interventions available to prevent or contain HPAI are culling infected and at-risk
flocks, and vaccination. However, culling alone has not been effective in controlling the disease, as
evidenced by the experiences of the European Union and the United States. In fact, egg producers
in the USA have begun lobbying for vaccination, given the severe consequences of the disease. In
South Africa, 90% of long-living poultry in greater Gauteng were either culled or died in 2023 due to
the inability of biosecurity and culling measures to contain the outbreak.

Drawing from the lessons learned from France’s success in vaccinating 20 million ducks, South
Africa is faced with the pressing need for vaccination as a tool to combat bird flu. A major challenge
facing South African farmers is that they are unfortunately not compensated for birds culled, and so
far, no farms have been granted permission by the Department of Agriculture (DoA) to vaccinate.

Currently, South Africa has three registered H5 vaccines, but the H7 vaccine requires additional
testing, which will take at least another year before it can be approved. Industry leaders agree that
vaccination is essential, particularly after the devastating losses experienced in 2017, and especially
in 2023. With the potential to lose half of all poultry flocks again, the impact on the industry would be
catastrophic, not just financially but also in terms of food security, malnutrition, and environmental
concerns from the destruction of large numbers of birds. Moreover, this will wreak havoc on the
price of South Africa’s preferred protein, like it has un the past, as any shortage in supply will
inevitably increase pricing.

Despite these pressing needs, obstacles remain in obtaining permission for vaccinations. The DoA
has put in place stringent biosecurity measures and monitoring protocols that farmers must meet to
be granted vaccination approval. However, these measures have proven impractical, and costly,
with no commercial farms in the country currently able to comply. This sets an impossibly high bar,
particularly for small-scale farmers. As it stands, no farm has met the criteria for vaccination
approval, and the DoA has ceased processing vaccination applications until further guidance is
provided by Minister Steenhuisen’s office.

The impact of an outbreak on the industry is severe. In 2023, more than 9.6 million birds were
culled, representing more than a third of long-living birds in the greater Gauteng area, where 90% of
birds were either culled or died. The direct minimum estimated loss to the industry was a staggering
R9.5 billion. With food security at risk, government intervention in the form of import rebates was introduced, but this did nothing to mitigate the damage to the poultry industry (in fact, it only served
to do more damage to the domestic industry). Prices for meat and eggs soared, with egg prices
increasing by more than 30%. To date, South Africa remains classified as HPAI positive, severely
impacting its ability to export. 

The urgency of addressing this looming crisis cannot be overstated. The industry has called for
immediate intervention to prevent a disaster. Without vaccination, South Africa may once again face
catastrophic consequences from bird flu.