Monthly Egg Price Monthly Report for JANUARY 2013

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Representation:
This report represents 4% of total potential egg production for the month.

Total Dozens sold: Sales Volumes

Total Dozens sold: Sales Values

The above statistics are compiled from data provided by members of SAPA.

MONTHLY EGG PRICE FOR TOTAL SALES:

The monthly average egg price for January 2013 was R10.00 per dozen, on a yearly comparison that is an increase of 14.16% and on a monthly comparison the egg price decreased by 1.9% (See graph 1). The decline in the monthly comparison indicates that still into 2013, egg farmers are still faced with downside risks to their profits .The annual average egg price for 2012 was R9.13 a decrease of 0.3% in comparison with 2011 average price.

MONTHLY EGG PRICE FOR TOTAL SALES, CATEGORISED INTO GRADED AND UNGRADED EGGS
During January 2013 the average egg price for graded eggs was R11.34 per dozen, an increase of 0.6% in comparison with the previous month and 17.9% more when compared to the same month in the previous year.  The average egg price for ungraded eggs was R8.00 per dozen, a 12.2% decrease compared to the previous month and an increase of 15.4% when compared to the previous year.  (See graph 2).

Graph 1:

Graph 2:

Please note: the scale of the vertical axis starts at R6.00 per dozen

COMPARISON OF GRADED AND UNGRADED EGGS
Graph 2 depicts the proportion of graded eggs sold in comparison with the ungraded eggs reported on. Of the total dozens sold for the month, 59% of eggs were graded and 49% were ungraded. Of The total dozens sold for the year 2012, 67% of the eggs were graded and the remaining 33% were ungraded.

MONTHLY FEED PRICE
The weighted average feed price includes distribution, excludes medication & additives and excludes VAT.  The monthly average feed price for January 2013 was R3 397.68 per ton, it increased by 6.3% on a monthly basis and an increase of 28.6% on a yearly basis. The average feed price for the year 2012 was R2 900.12 per ton, an increase of 24% when compared to 2011. 

CULL AGE
The average cull age at depletion during January 2013 was 74 weeks.  The cull age differs from month to month due to participation that fluctuates. The average cull age for 2012 was 72.5 weeks or in effect 73 weeks while in 2011 the age was 71 weeks.

CULL PRICE
The average price per cull for the month of January 2013 was R23.95 per cull, a decrease of 17.4% on a monthly basis and an increase of 2.8% on a yearly basis. 

MONTHLY YEAR ON YEAR COMPARISON:  % CHANGE IN EGG PRICE IN COMPARISON WITH THE FEED PRICE

The average monthly egg price year on year percentage change i.e. comparing to the same month of the previous year, has since October 2012 gradually picked up although still subdued. The egg sales prices have been under pressure and dropping for all the three quarters of 2012 with only in the final quarter of 2012 that there was a turnaround, The first month of 2013 saw this year on year percentage change slightly increase to only 14.2% from 13.9% in December 2012. This increase only depicts the general increase of food production inflation from one year to another.

The average monthly feed price year on year percentage change i.e. comparing to the same month in the previous year, showed an increase of 28.6% in this first month of 2013 after it showed an increase of 24.8% in December 2012, these figures are indicative of a slight moderation of the rate of feed cost increases. 

The two scenarios are depicted on the same graph below for comparison, For the whole three quarter of 2012 farmers were faced with high feed costs and declining egg sale prices with only the fourth quarter providing a minor relief where farmers saw an incline in sales prices and a moderate decline of feed costs. Though in January 2013 both the egg price and the feed prices showed increases, the rate of feed cost increase is still higher than that of the egg producer price, signalling subdued profits. From the graph below one can tell that egg farmers last saw decent profits in the year 2009.

Definition of egg price:

Egg producer price, excluding culls and pulp, after rebates, ad spend, “price offs” and settlement discounts, including packaging

DISCLAIMER:
The views expressed in SAPA STATS reports reflect those of SAPA in collaboration with its independent consultants and do not constitute any specific advice as to decisions or actions that should be taken.  While every care has been taken in preparing documents no representation nor warranty or any expressed or implied undertaking is given and no responsibility or liability is accepted by SAPA as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether as electronic data or as a finished report.  SAPA or its independent consultants do not accept responsibility or liability for any damages of whatsoever nature which any person may suffer as a result of any decision or action taken on the basis of the information contained herein.  All opinions and estimates contained in the reports may be changed after publication without notice.

All forecasts of future production, prices, trade or feed and feed ingredient trends are based on the opinion of independent consultants contracted to SAPA.  These forecasts are for guideline purposes only and SAPA does not, in any way, warrant that these predictions will be realised.  SAPA therefore cautions any user of this information to treat it in an appropriate manner.

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