BROILER INDUSTRY PRODUCTION REPORT FOR JANUARY 2013

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DISCLAIMER: INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT DOES NOT REFLECT ACTUAL DATA. THE PROJECTIONS PRESENTED IN THE REPORT ARE BASED UPON SPECIFIC PRODUCTION STANDARDS AND INDICATE HISTORIC AND FORECASTED TRENDS ONLY.

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EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW: BROILER INDUSTRY – JANUARY 2013

 

1. BROILER BREEDERS

 

Day-old parent pullets placed 

An average of 169 506 day-old parent pullets was placed per week in January 2013. This is a decrease of 37 200 pullets (-18.0%), compared to the number of parent pullets placed in December 2012, and 9 200 less (-5.16%) than the number placed in January 2012.

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Broiler breeder flock

 

For May 2013 a breeder flock of 6 915 100 hens is forecasted. This will be 402 350 more (+6.18%) than the May 2012 flock (Graph 2).

The average broiler breeder flock for the five months to May 2013 amounts to 6.805 million hens which is an increase of 300 000 hens (+4.6%) compared to the same five months of 2012,

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2.BROILER CHICK PLACEMENTS

 

The average weekly placement of 21.833 million broiler chicks forecasted for July 2013 is 1.421 million chicks more (+7.0%) than the July 2012 placement.

A total placement of 643.6 million broiler chicks is projected for the first seven months of 2013. Compared to the first seven months of 2012 this amounts to an increase of 34.54 million chicks placed (+5.7%) up to July 2013.

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BROILER PRODUCTION 

Production of 20.55 million broilers per week is forecasted for August 2013. This will be 1.285 million more (+6.7%) than the production in August 2012 (Graphs 6 and 7).

From January to August 2013 an average of 19.94 million broilers will be produced per week. Compared to the first eight months of 2012, this is a year on year increase of 1.066 million broilers (+5.65%) per week.

 

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PLEASE NOTE:

Any and all information, data, know-how, documentation, materials and other communications, written or oral, which are disclosed or provided to SAPA or its designees by a SAPA member shall be regarded as confidential information belonging to that member and will not be disclosed to any other member.

• The source base of stats on parents placed has been extended to all suppliers of day old parent chicks.  Historic figures are used for two participants

• The effect of F2-placings has been reduced from 5% in 2003 to 2% in 2006, and from December 2007 an effect of 1% will be incorporated into the stats.

• NEW STANDARDS HAVE BEEN AGREED UPON, (i.e. 2011 STANDARDS).  The approved 2011 standards were applied from October 2011 and will be fully implemented throughout the broiler production process in October 2012.

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TABLE 1:  COMPARISON OF BROILER PRODUCTION STANDARDS SINCE 2003:

	2003	2006	2008	2011
Introduced:	Aug 1997	Aug 2005	Jan 2007	Oct 2011
Fully implemented:	Aug 2001	Jun 2006	Nov 2007	Sep 2012
Broiler Breeder Flock:
Mortality to 20 weeks of age:	3.5%	6%	6%	5.6%
Laying Cycle: 20 weeks to	63 weeks	63 weeks	61 weeks	61 weeks
Mortality during the laying cycle:	12.4%	12.4%	11.5%	8.5%
Broiler Chick Placements per week:
Hatching eggs per hen housed:	151.1	152.5	148.4	151.6
Broiler chicks produced per hen housed:	126.2	124.7	119.5	124.2

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TABLE 2:  A COMPARISON OF THE SAME BROILER PRODUCTION STANDARDS AT WEEK 60:

	2003	2006	2008	2011
Introduced:	Aug 1997	Aug 2005	Jan 2007	Oct 2011
Fully implemented:	Aug 2001	Jun 2006	Nov 2007	Sep 2012
Broiler Breeder Flock:
Mortality during the laying cycle:	11.8%	11.8%	11.3%	8.45%
Broiler Chick Placements:
Hatching eggs per hen housed:	144.6	145.8.	146.1	149.2
Broiler chicks produced per hen housed:	121.3	119.6	117.8	122.4

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The Broiler Production Model is based on the actual figures as depicted above and SAPA BROILER PARENT BREEDER PRODUCTION STANDARDS as attached in APPENDIX A.

See APPENDIX B for the weekly schedule as applied per month.

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BROILER INDUSTRY : KEY RESULTS - JANUARY 2013
(Projections are based on day-old parents pullets placed per week to January 2013)

	Hatch	Calendar	Day-old Parent		Breeder	Broiler Chicks		Broilers Slaughtered
	days	Days	pullets placed		hens	placed
Month on Month	/Month	/Month	/Month	/Week	Average	/Month	/Week	/Month	/Week
January 2013	18	31	762 776	169 506	6 758 229	91 765 801	20 721 310	85 932 903	19 404 204
December 2012	17	31	878 654	206 742	6 733 000	90 960 907	20 539 560	86 021 592	19 424 230
Change			-115 878	-37 236	25 229	804 894	181 750	-88 688	-20 026
% Change			-13.19%	-18.01%	0.37%	0.88%	0.88%	-0.10%	-0.10%
Year on Year	/Month	/Month	/Month	/Week	Average	/Month	/Week	/Month	/Week
January 2013	18	31	762 776	169 506	6 758 229	91 765 801	20 721 310	85 932 903	19 404 204
January 2012	18	31	804 274	178 727	6 485 625	86 659 774	19 568 336	83 396 927	18 831 564
Change			-41 497	-9 222	272 605	5 106 027	1 152 974	2 535 977	572 640
% Change			-5.16%	-5.16%	4.20%	5.89%	5.89%	3.04%	3.04%
Year to date	/Period	/Period	/Period	/Week	Average	/Period	/Week	/Period	/Week
Jan>Dec 2012	209	366	9 592 592	183 465	6 569 542	1 058 935 213	20 252 859	996 858 477	19 065 599
Jan>Dec 2011	208	365	9 102 119	174 561	6 520 849	1 035 827 882	19 865 192	978 872 988	18 772 907
Change			490 473	8 904	48 694	23 107 332	387 667	17 985 489	292 693
% Change			5.39%	5.10%	0.75%	2.23%	1.95%	1.84%	1.56%
Full year forecast	/Period	/Period	/Period	/Week	Average	/Period	/Week	/Period	/Week
Jan>Dec 2011	208	365	9 102 119	174 561	6 520 849	1 035 827 882	19 865 192	978 872 988	18 772 907
Jan>Dec 2010	209	365	9 206 255	176 558	6 477 708	1 031 475 606	19 781 724	968 796 965	18 579 668
Change			-104 136	-1 997	43 141	4 352 276	83 468	10 076 024	193 239
% Change			-1.13%	-1.13%	0.67%	0.42%	0.42%	1.04%	1.04%
2012 Projections	/Period	/Period	/Period	/Week	Average	/Period	/Week	/Period	/Week
Jan. > Dec 2012	-	366			6 569 542	1 058 935 213	20 252 859	996 858 477	19 065 599
Jan. > Dec 2011	-	365			6 520 849	1 035 827 882	19 865 192	978 872 988	18 772 907
Change					48 694	23 107 332	387 667	17 985 489	292 693
% Change					0.75	2.23%	1.95%	1.84%	1.56%
Jan. > August 2013	-	243						692 202 931	19 940 002
Jan. > August 2012	-	244						657 896 957	18 874 093
Change								34 305 974	1 065 909
% Change								5.21%	5.65%

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NOTE:

Month or Period: Refers to a calendar month or period

Week: Refers to an average 7 day week of which all 7 days fall within the specified month or period

ASSUMPTIONS

1: All surviving day-old parent pullets placed will be transferred to the laying flock at 20 weeks of age.

2: All the potential hatching eggs produced by breeders to 65 weeks of age will be set, hatched and placed as day-old broilers.

3: Hatching eggs produced will be set within 3 to 10 days after production.

4: Broilers will be slaughtered between 35 and 42 days of age.

5: No deviation from the accepted production standards and procedures, due to disease, changes in production planning, etc. is expected.

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1.         BROILER BREEDERS

1.1:      DAY-OLD BROILER PARENTS PLACED

Graph 1 depicts the average number of day-old broiler parents placed per week. (These figures are used in the broiler production model to forecast trends).

Graph 1:

In January 2013 an average of 169 506 day-old parent pullets was placed per week. This is 37 200 pullets less (-18.0%) than the number placed in December 2012, and 9 200 less (-5.16%) than the number placed in January 2012.

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1.2       BROILER BREEDERS PER MONTH

The projected broiler breeder flock based on the average number of day-old female parents placed per week is presented in Graph 2.
Graph 2:

A breeder flock of 6 915 100 hens is forecasted for May 2013. This will be 402 350 more (+6.18%) than the May 2012 flock.

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1.3       BROILER BREEDERS PER ANNUM

The projected average number of broiler breeders per annum is presented in Graph 3.
Graph 3:

The average number of 6 570 000 breeders forecasted for 2012 is 48 700 hens more (+0.75%) than the corresponding number for 2011. The average flock of 6.805 million breeders forecasted for the five months to May 2013 is 300 000 more (+4.6%) than the corresponding 2012 flock.

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2.         BROILER CHICK PLACEMENT

POTENTIAL DAY OLD BROILER CHICK PLACEMENTS

The potential number of day old broiler chicks produced weekly per month and per annum respectively, is presented in Graph 4 and Graph 5.
Graph 4:

The average weekly placement of 21.833 million broiler chicks forecasted for July 2013 is 1.421 million chicks more (+7.0%) than the July 2012 placement. The number of 643.6 million chicks placed over the first seven months to July 2013 is 34.5 million more (+5.67%) than the corresponding number for 2012.

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Graph 5:

23.108 Million day-old broiler chicks more (+2.23%) were produced in 2012 than in 2011.

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3.         BROILER PRODUCTION

3.1       MONTHLY BROILERS SLAUGHTERED PER WEEK

The potential number of broilers slaughtered per week per month is depicted in Graph 6.
Graph 6:

The weekly production of 20 548 600 broilers forecasted for August 2013 is 1 285 000 more (+6.7%) than the number produced in August 2012.

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In Graph 7 the monthly movement in broilers slaughtered per week is indicated.

Graph 7:

The total increase in weekly broiler production from January to December 2012 amounts to 350 800 broilers. Broiler production increases by 1 124 400 birds over the eight months to August 2013.

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BROILERS SLAUGHTERED PER WEEK

The average broiler production per week per annum is presented in Graph 8.
Graph 8:

The average of 19.066 million broilers produced per week in 2012 is 292 700 more (+1.6%) than the average number produced per week in 2011. Production of 19.940 million per week for the eight months to August 2013 will be 1.066 million more (+5.65%) than the average for the first eight months of 2012.

The monthly year on year movement in weekly production is indicated in Graph 9.

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Graph 9:

The total increase of 293 000 broilers per week over 2012 (Graph 8) was the result of continuous monthly year on year growth in production throughout the year. This trend continues at an increasing rate up to August 2013.

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TOTAL BROILERS SLAUGHTERED PER ANNUM 

The total number of broilers slaughtered per annum is depicted in Graph 10.

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Graph 10
Over the ten year period from 2002 to 2012, the number of broilers slaughtered per annum has increased with 277 428 000 birds. This amounts to a total increase in weekly broiler production of 5 273 000 (+38.2%) birds over the ten years. The compounded growth over the ten year period was 3.39% per annum.

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YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGE IN SUPPLY AND PRICE OF BROILERS

Graph 11 shows the % year on year change in weekly broiler production and producer price per kilogram. PLEASE NOTE: The PPI related price refers to the STATISTICS SA PPI. It is not a direct measure of poultry PPI, but it is an indicator of general change in production costs.
Graph 11:

A negative correlation exists between the supply of broilers and producer price per kilogram. Factors other than the supply of broilers, such as cost of production, importation of poultry meat products, price of substitute products, seasonal demand and economic factors influencing the disposable income of consumers have an impact on the broiler price trends and profit margins.

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5:         DEPOPULATION OF LAYERS

MONTHLY DEPOPULATION OF BROILER PARENT HENS

Graphs 12 and 13 present the number of broiler parents due for depopulation at 61 weeks of age, per month and per week respectively.

Graph 12:
 

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Graph 13

5.2       DEPOPULATION OF BROILER PARENT HENS AND COMMERCIAL LAYERS

Graph 14 depicts the combined 5-weekly moving average of broiler parent hens and layer spent hens due to be depopulated.
Graph 14

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APPENDIX A

BROILER BREEDER PRODUCTION STANDARDS

2011 STANDARDS

Below, please find the approved 2011 standards as agreed upon at the Chick Producer Organisation Meeting held during7 September 2011.

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2008 STANDARDS

Below, please find the approved 2008 standards as agreed upon at the Chick Producer Organisation Meeting held on 17 December 2008. 

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APPENDIX A (continued) BROILER BREEDER PRODUCTION STANDARDS - 2006 STANDARDS

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APPENDIX A (continued) BROILER BREEDER PRODUCTION STANDARDS - 2003 STANDARDS

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APPENDIX B - WEEKLY SCHEDULE

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