Monthly Statistical Reports - Broiler Production

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Broiler Production Report

BROILER INDUSTRY PRODUCTION REPORT FOR JANUARY 2012:

DISCLAIMER: INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT DOES NOT REFLECT ACTUAL DATA. THE PROJECTIONS PRESENTED IN THE REPORT ARE BASED UPON SPECIFIC PRODUCTION STANDARDS AND INDICATE HISTORIC AND FORECASTED TRENDS ONLY.

EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW: BROILER INDUSTRY – JANUARY 2012

1 BROILER BREEDERS

1.1 Day-old parent pullets placed

On average 178 700 day-old parent pullets were placed per week in January 2012. This was 10 000 more (+5.9%) than the number placed in December 2011 and 6 100 (+3.5%) pullets more than in January 2011.

Broiler breeder flock

The broiler breeder flock of 6 485 600 hens projected for January 2012 was 7 350 lower (-0.1%) than the January 2011 flock.

The flock of 6 512 800 breeder hens projected for May 2012 will be 850 less (- 0.01%) than the May 2011 flock (Graph 2).

2. BROILER CHICK PLACEMENTS

An upswing in broiler chick placement is forecasted from March 2012 to July 2012. (Graph 4).The projected average broiler chick placement of 20 017 000 chicks per week for the first seven months of 2012 will be 242 000 chicks more (+1.2%) than the corresponding placement of 2011.

The forecasted placement of 20.412 million broiler chicks in July 2012 will be at an all-time high.

Bear in mind that the process of introducing genetically improved broiler breeders commenced in January 2012 and will be completed in September 2012. The fact that the number of broiler chicks placed increased while the number of parent hens remains fairly constant can be attributed to the higher number of chicks produced per hen housed

3. BROILER PRODUCTION

Between April and May 2012 a marked increase of 527 000 (+2.8%) broilers slaughtered per week is forecasted.

In August 2012 an average production of 19 264 000 broilers per week is forecasted. This will be 351 400 more (+1.9%) than the August 2011 production (Graphs 6 and 7).

The forecasted production of broilers over the first eight months of 2012 amounts to 657.9 million birds. This represents an increase of 8.9 million broilers (+1.4%) compared to the first eight months of 2011.

PLEASE NOTE:

Any and all information, data, know-how, documentation, materials and other communications, written or oral, which are disclosed or provided to SAPA or its designees by a SAPA member shall be regarded as confidential information belonging to that member and will not be disclosed to any other member

The source base of stats on parents placed has been extended to all suppliers of day old parent chicks. Historic figures are used for two participants
The effect of F2-placings has been reduced from 5% in 2003 to 2% in 2006, and from November 2007 an effect of 1% will be incorporated into the stats.
NEW STANDARDS HAVE BEEN AGREED UPON, (i.e. 2011 STANDARDS). The approved 2011 standards were applied from October 2011 and will be fully implemented throughout the broiler production process in September 2012.

TABLE 1: COMPARISON OF BROILER PRODUCTION STANDARDS SINCE 2003:

	2003	2006	2008:	2011
Introduced:	Aug 1997	Aug 2005	Jan 2007	Oct 2011
Fully implemented:	Aug 2001	Jun 2006	Nov 2007	Sep 2012

Broiler Breeder Flock:
Mortality to 20 weeks of age:	3.5%	6%	6%	5.6%
Laying Cycle: 20 weeks to	63 weeks	63 weeks	61 weeks	61 weeks
Mortality during the laying cycle:	12.4%	12.4%	11.5%	8.5%
Broiler Chick Placements per week:
Hatching eggs per hen housed:	151.1	152.5	148.4	151.6
Broiler chicks produced per hen housed:	126.2	124.7	119.5	124.2

TABLE 2: A COMPARISON OF THE SAME BROILER PRODUCTION STANDARDS AT WEEK 60:

	2003	2006	2008:	2011
Introduced:	Aug 1997	Aug 2005	Jan 2007	Oct 2011
Fully implemented:	Aug 2001	Jun 2006	Nov 2007	Sep 2012

Broiler Breeder Flock:
Mortality during the laying cycle:	11.8%	11.8%	11.3%	8.45%
Broiler Chick Placements:
Hatching eggs per hen housed:	144.6	145.8.	146.1	149.2
Broiler chicks produced per hen housed:	121.3	119.6	117.8	122.4

The Broiler Production Model is based on the actual figures as depicted above and SAPA BROILER PARENT BREEDER PRODUCTION STANDARDS as attached in APPENDIX A.

See APPENDIX B for the weekly schedule as applied per month.

BROILER INDUSTRY : KEY RESULTS - JANUARY 2012
(Projections are based on day-old parents pullets placed per week to January 2012)

	Hatch	Calendar	Day-old Parent		Breeder	Broiler Chicks		Broilers Slaughtered
	days	Days	pullets placed		hens	placed

Month on Month	/Month	/Month	/Month	/Week	Average	/Month	/Week	/Month	/Week

Jan 2012	18	31	804,274	178,727	6,485,625	86,659,774	19,568,336	83,396,927	18,831,564

Dec 2011	18	31	759,263	168,725	6,420,961	87,626,156	19,786,551	84,467,981	19,073,415

Change			45,010	10,002	64,663	-966,382	-218,215	-1,071,054	-241,851
% Change			5.93%	5.93%	1.01%	-1.10%	-1.10%	-1.27%	-1.27%

Year on Year	/Month	/Month	/Month	/Week	Average	/Month	/Week	/Month	/Week

Jan 2012	18	31	804,274	178,727	6,485,625	86,659,774	19,568,336	83,396,927	18,831,564

Jan 2011	17	31	733,710	172,638	6,492,972	85,874,878	19,391,101	83,465,414	18,847,029

Change			70,564	6,090	-7,348	784,897	177,235	-68,488	-15,465
% Change			9.62%	3.53%	-0.11%	0.91%	0.91%	-0.08%	-0.08%

Year to date	/Period	/Period	/Period	/Week	Average	/Period	/Week	/Period	/Week








Full year forecast	/Period	/Period	/Period	/Week	Average	/Period	/Week	/Period	/Week

Jan>Dec 2011	208	365	9,102,119	174,561	6,520,849	1,035,827,882	19,865,192	978,872,988	18,772,907

Jan>Dec 2010	209	365	9,206,255	176,558	6,477,708	1,031,475,606	19,781,724	968,796,965	18,579,668

Change			-104,136	-1,997	43,141	4,352,276	83,468	10,076,024	193,239
% Change			-1.13%	-1.13%	0.67%	0.42%	0.42%	1.04%	1.04%

2012 Projections	/Period	/Period	/Period	/Week	Average	/Period	/Week	/Period	/Week

Jan. > Aug 2012		244						657,896,957	18,874,093
Jan. > Aug 2011		243						648,992,150	18,695,247
Change								8,904,807	178,846
% Change								1.37%	0.96%

Jan. > May 2012		152			6,504,735
Jan. > May 2011		151			6,524,212
Change					-19,477
% Change					-0.30
NOTE:
Month or Period: Refers to a calendar month or period
Week: Refers to an average 7 day week of which all 7 days fall within the specified month or period

ASSUMPTIONS
1: All surviving day-old parent pullets placed will be transferred to the laying flock at 20 weeks of age.
2: All the potential hatching eggs produced by breeders to 65 weeks of age will be set, hatched and placed as day-old broilers.
3: Hatching eggs produced will be set within 3 to 10 days after production.
4: Broilers will be slaughtered between 35 and 42 days of age.
5: No deviation from the accepted production standards and procedures, due to disease, changes in production planning, etc. is expected.

1. BROILER BREEDERS

1.1: DAY-OLD BROILER PARENTS PLACED
Graph 1 depicts the average day-old broiler parents placed per week. (These figures are used in the Broiler Production Model to forecast trends)
Graph 1:

In January 2012 an average of 178 727 day-old parent pullets was placed per week. This was 10 000 more (+5.9%) than the number placed in December 2011 and 6 100 pullets (+3.5%) more than in January 2011.

1.2 BROILER BREEDERS PER MONTH

The projected broiler breeder flock based on the average number of day-old female parents placed per week is presented in Graph 2.

Graph 2:

The flock of 6 512 782 breeders forecasted for May 2012 is 850 less (-0.01%) than the May 2011 flock.

1.3 BROILER BREEDERS PER ANNUM

The projected average number of broiler breeders per annum is presented in Graph 3.

Graph 3:

The average number of 6 505 000 breeders for the first five months of 2012 will be 19 200 less (-0.3%) than the corresponding number for 2011.

2. BROILER CHICK PLACEMENT

POTENTIAL DAY OLD BROILER CHICK PLACEMENTS

The potential number of day old broiler chicks respectively produced weekly per month; and per annum are presented in Graph 4 and Graph 5.

Graph 4:

In July 2012 an average 20 412 000 chicks will be placed per week. This will be 415 116 more (+2.1%) than the July 2011 placement per week.

Graph 5:

4 352 000 more (+0.4%) day-old broilers chicks were produced in 2011 than in 2010.

3. BROILER PRODUCTION

3.1 MONTHLY BROILERS SLAUGHTERED PER WEEK

The potential number of broilers slaughtered per week per month is depicted in Graph 6.
Graph 6:

The production of 19 263 619 broilers per week forecasted for August 2012 is 351 435 more (+1.86%) than the number produced in August 2011.

In Graph 7 the monthly movement in broilers slaughtered per week is indicated.
Graph 7:

The net effect of the monthly changes in broiler production over the eight months to August 2012 is an average increase of 190 200 broilers per week over the period.

BROILERS SLAUGHTERED PER WEEK

The average broiler production per week per annum is presented in Graph 8.
Graph 8:

The 18 874 000 broilers produced per week over the first eight months of 2012 will be 178 850 more (+1.0%) than that of the corresponding period of 2011.

The monthly year on year movement in weekly production is indicated in Graph 9.
Graph 9:

From February 2011 to August 2012 the year on year increase in broiler production was limited to an average of 138 850 per week. This represents an average increase of 0.74% since January 2011.

TOTAL BROILERS SLAUGHTERED PER ANNUM

The total number of broilers slaughtered per annum is depicted in Graph 10.
Graph 10

Since the year 2000, the number of broilers slaughtered has increased by 312 226 000 birds per annum (+46.8%). The compounded growth over the eleven year period was 40.3% (3.66% per annum).

YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGE IN SUPPLY AND PRICE OF BROILERS

Graph 11 shows the % year on year change in weekly broiler production and producer price per kilogram. PLEASE NOTE: The PPI related price refers to the STATISTICS SA PPI and is not a direct measure of poultry PPI but is an indicator of general change in production costs.
Graph 11:

A negative correlation exists between the supply of broilers and producer price per kilogram. Factors other than the supply of broilers, such as cost of production, importation of poultry meat products, price of substitute products, seasonal demand and economic factors, influencing the disposable income of consumers, have an impact on the broiler price trends.

5: DEPOPULATION OF LAYERS

MONTHLY DEPOPULATION OF BROILER PARENT HENS

Graphs 12 and 13 present the number of broiler parents due for depopulation at 61 weeks of age, per month and per week respectively.
Graph 12: